A quick look at the news. YNet is reporting on a poll showing Hamas would gain a plurality in the Palestinian legislature if the election were held today. It comes in at 31% of the vote, with Marwan Barghouti’s party at 28%. Fatah, without Barghouti, looks like about 18%.
The Associated Press says Prime Minster Ahmed Qurei is not going to run, giving as his excuse Israel’s refusal to allow voting in East Jerusalem:
Qurei, who lives on the outskirts of east Jerusalem… said he thinks the Jan. 25 vote should be postponed because of Israel’s move. ”It is the main issue: We must not go to elections without Jerusalem,” he said at a news conference.
Israel, however, seems to be backing off this postion.
I think the truth is that Qurei realizes Fatah doesn’t have a chance of winning the election with the slate of old-timers that he and other party hacks rammed through after the aborted primary election last month. His withdrawal is a step toward re-unifying the party.
Abbas is trying to bring Barghouti back into the fold. A West Bank court has now given him permission to re-draw the list even though the deadline has passed. We can assume Mohammed Dalan, and others who broke away with Barghouti to form the new al-Mustaqbal party, will be on it.
If Abbas is successful, and if Fatah gains back the 28% of the electorate Barghouti took with him, that puts it at 46% - a comfortable lead.
In the eyes of the west, Hamas is the big, bad wolf. The AP article cited above notes:
Hamas, which has killed hundreds of Israelis in suicide bombings and remains committed to Israel’s destruction, seems poised to make a strong showing…
I wouldn’t mind statements like that if the papers applied similar prefaces to statements about the Israeli parties. For example, “Kadima, whose leader, Ariel Sharon, killed thousands of refugees in the Shatila camp in Lebanon and has devoted his life to expanding Jewish settlement in the occupied territories…”
I still read the popular mood as being supportive of a peace process if it would lead to a just, viable two-state solution. And Hamas, no matter what it’s charter says, is going to have to come to grips with the popular mood if it wants to remain a viable political party in a proto-nation that is moving quickly toward a democratic form of government.
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