semitism.net

Did any of you see the interview with Khalil Shikaki in yesterday’s New York Times?  It’s well worth a read.  He’s the Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, a respected polling firm and a reliable source of information on Palestinian public opinion.  It provides a good antidote to the inflammatory statements of militant leaders, which are sometimes assumed to reflect the sentiments of the Palestinian people in general…

 A widely publicized finding from the poll, which was taken in late September, was that eighty-four percent of Palestinians believe the Gaza withdrawal was a victory for the Palestinian resistance; and they give the lion’s share of credit to Hamas.  That, however, is not the end of the story.  Dr. Shikaki observes:

 …instead of leading to further increases in the level of support for violence against Israelis, the perception that violence pays or that violence paid in the Israeli disengagement decision has in fact led to a reduction in the level of support for violence, rather than an increase in the level of support for violence…

(W)e see people saying, with regard to Gaza — two-thirds are telling us — there should be absolutely no more violence in Gaza altogether. Even more important than this, for the first time we have a majority among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza that favors collection of arms from militias and the armed groups in Gaza — not in the West Bank, but in Gaza.

And very significantly, we have more than three-fourths, 77 percent of the public, telling us that it supports the continuation of the ceasefire. So, in terms of the issues related to violence, it is very clear that we made significant progress in the people’s willingness to move away from violence even as they believed that violence was responsible for the achievement of the disengagement.

 Furthermore, although we hear constantly from Israeli sources that Abbas’ government it teetering on the brink, he and his party are actually gaining in popularity.  In June - before the disengagement - Palestinians favored Fatah over Hamas by 44 to 33 percent margin.  In September, Fatah polled at 47 percent and Hamas at 30 percent.  Dr. Shikaki feels that, with even a tiny strip of land to govern, Palestinians are turing their attention away from resistance and toward issues of domestic policy.

 We’ve been asking this over the last decade or so: What are the top priorities? Normally, the top priority is ending the Israeli occupation. This has always been No.1. This has usually been followed by improving economic conditions and at the end of the priorities would come things like fighting corruption or improving government, things like that. But after the passing of [former Palestinian Authority President] Yasir Arafat late last year, we began to see a narrowing in the order of priorities. The gap between improving economic conditions and ending occupation narrowed considerably after the passing of Arafat. Now, for the first time, after the Gaza disengagement, we have economics coming on top. For the first time, improving economic conditions is priority No. 1…

This is a dynamic that has been triggered by disengagement. In my view, this is the most important development that we have seen here in the last sixth months and this is entirely due to the disengagement. 

 The interviewer asks him about the recent drive-by shooting in the West Bank.  Israelis took it as a sign that the disengagement had failed to defuse Palestinian violence or improve Israel’s security.

I think the Israelis are looking at the Palestinian situation and they can only see the trees and they are unable to see the forest. The forest is what I’ve just described. This is really what is going on. This is the reality that the Israelis, instead of looking at this larger picture, are instead looking at this event, or that event, in which groups are sensing the transformation in the society and the demand for Abu Mazen to begin to crack down and collect arms and stop the violence. These groups that are sensing all of these things I believe are responsible for the violence… 

The latest incident which took place three days ago, I believe, was a message to Abu Mazen who was at that moment on his way to Washington. The message was, "Be careful to what you commit yourself to in Washington because we’re here. We’re the boss and we will be able to dictate to you and to the Americans and to the Israelis your agenda in Washington." This is a tree, however. This is where the Israelis, because of their own domestic constraints and weaknesses in the post-disengagement environment, are unable to understand that they need to look at the big picture and understand that these small incidents are desperate attempts by groups that feel the heat and are trying desperately to prevent the continuation of the peaceful transformation.

 Dr. Shikiki’s view is optimistic.  The disengagment was, indeed, a breakthrough.  It accomplished much of what Israelis hoped.  Support for militant violence has weakened.  The attention of the Palestinian public has shifted away from armed resistance, and toward issues of civil society.  Further moves toward peace would be widely supported.

But he also warns that Israel’s post-disengagement behavior will continue to influence Palestinian sentiment.

The collective punishment the Israeli army is imposing at the moment, is sending a negative message to those people who told us yesterday that they oppose violence, they want to collect arms, they will vote for Fatah. The Israeli government makes no difference between you and those who make violence. And you will all be dealt the kind of punishment the Israeli government is inflicting at the moment. This affects the civilian population, the motorists who cannot use the roads anymore to travel, people who are unable to reach their own businesses, their factories, their shops — they’re destroying the economy. I think it’s a big mistake by the Israelis to try in their response to the violence to crack down on the population rather than on those who commit the violence.

 I thought it was a good article.

My only gripe with the New York Times is that they waited until after Abbas’ visit here to publish it, even though the interview clearly took place before the visit.  They couldn’t find a few extra columns betwen the underwear ads for this valuable public opinion data?

I can’t help but wonder if some editor decided it would be better for congressmen to meet the Palestinian president with fresh images of a drive-by shooting in their minds, rather than data suggesting that he has popular support, and his people are ready to move forward with the peace process.