semitism.net

Here we go again. What do I mean by that? Qassam rockets from Gaza? Israeli commando raids into the West Bank? Pundits everywhere trying to assess the impact of an event that just took place? Sadly, not any of those. What I mean by “here we go again” is the Marion Barry-esque refusal to fade away by one of the most hateful characters in all of politics, Benjamin Netanyahu. A mere one day after the last settler was evacuated from the 4 West Bank settlements, Bibi began his grandstanding to try to unseat Ariel Sharon. The question now is: will Israelis really put up with it? And will the center and left in Israel be put in the most unthinkable of positions — having to rescue Ariel Sharon?

Articles in both the Jerusalem Post and Ha’aretz yesterday marked Day 1 of the campaign for both the Likud leadership and, ultimately, leadership of Israel. (The Post article noted that one of the other most hateful characters in politics, Ehud Barak, was about to hold his 5th press conference in 2 months, but the fact that that note even made it in the article owes probably more to editorial staff sympathy than an attempt to report “news”). And front and center stands, somehow, again, like a bad dream that keeps coming back no matter how much therapy you try, Bibi Netanyahu.

With most of the world’s attention still focused on disengagement and its aftermath, which I am sure we will be writing a lot about on this site, it is worth taking a step to the side for a moment to make sure people watch carefully what is really the most important story on the future of disengagement — who will lead Israel.

Never mind the multiple corruption scandals during his last stint as Prime Minister. Never mind his public confession to adultery (brought out during a campaign by yet another of Israel’s most unbelievable politicians, David Levy). Never mind his gutting of the Israeli social welfare system as Finance Minister at a time of increasing poverty throughout the country. Most importantly, never mind his utter failure to bring Israel either “peace” or “security” that he so glibly promised during the 1996 campaign. No, forget all that, and simply look at Benjamin Netanyahu as the current favorite, buoyed by the religious right, to lead Israel next year.

I will admit to non-neutrality here. In April 1996, I cashed in my savings from 3 jobs to go spend a month volunteering on the Shimon Peres campaign. No doubt, Netanyahu ran a brilliant political campaign against one of the worst campaigners of all time. But his manipulation of the facts and the fear Israelis felt after a terrible rash of suicide bombings early in 1996 is really what led him to victory. I stood at many an intersection throughout Israel, often being spit upon, listening to his supporters talk about “peace with security.” It was obvious that few of his ardent supporters were interested in the “peace” part of that phrase, but paying lip-service to peace was clearly the way to get to the center of the electorate, still reeling from the death of Yitzhak Rabin.

But Netanyahu went further. Rather than shy away from, he courted the extremists who compared Rabin to Hitler. Rather than build on Oslo, which already needed a lot of help, he brought us to Wye, just that much further away from peace.

So now again, we see Bibi sidling up beside the most extremist of settlers. Does anyone really believe for a second that Bibi cares about the settlers? Was he there for them as they were evacuated? Hardly. He apparently hated the idea of disengagement so much that he waited months and months after its announcement, staying in the government — until all of the world’s cameras had turned to Israel to begin covering it. That’s when he decided he couldn’t take it any longer and announced his resignation — which meant he went straight to the cameras (Bob Dole is credited with saying that the most dangerous place in Washington is between Chuck Schumer and a camera; I would like to see Schumer just try to get in front of Bibi to get to a camera).

Now Bibi wants early Likud primaries, to be able to capitalize and exploit any minor misstep following disengagement. Sharon will fight that call with everything he has. But if Bibi is successful, Sharon is telling everyone he will run independent from the Likud, on his own.

Now, don’t get me wrong. As Haaretz also reported yesterday, Sharon has already given a lengthy interview to the ultra-Orthodox press, bashing the “sushi eaters” of the left for their absence from disengagement. This election, at least the Likud primary, will be a run to the far right. The campaign will likely be entirely one of each man promising in as many ways as possible that the West Bank will never be given up.

But until Labor or any other party on the left can produce a viable candidate (and I do not count either Peres or Barak viable), Sharon is all there is. In the end, Bibi is right about one thing when he bashes Sharon: Sharon did precisely what the last Labor candidate for PM, Amram Mitzna, promised to do. Perhaps not in the way Mitzna or others on the left would have, perhaps not with the eye to ultimate peace we would like to see. But Sharon did something, and he may well surprise us all and do something again.

If Netanyahu wins, Israel and the Palestinians will get a future of nothing.