Mahmoud Abbas’ visit here went considerably better than Sharon’s, by most accounts. Tikun Olam has a nice summary of the press conference. The Bush quote, which I’m taking straight from Richard, was:
A viable two-state solution must ensure contiguity of the West Bank, and a state of scattered territories will not work. There must also be meaningful linkages between the West Bank and Gaza. This is the position of the United States today, it will be the position of the United States at the time of final status negotiations.
Israel must remove unauthorized outposts and stop settlement expansion…
He also said that "any final status agreement must be reached between the two parties, and changes to the 1949 armistice lines must be mutually agreed to."
Yedioth’s Washington correspondent points out that Abbas was hoping for a letter of committment from the U.S., similar to the notorious Bush letter to Sharon last year that (in Israel’s interpretation anyhow) sanctioned the West Bank settlements in return for the Gaza withdrawal.
…a diplomatic source in Washington expects Bush will not accede to the request.
"(Abbas) will receive a lot of hugs in front of the cameras, but inside, the talks will be difficult," the source said. "The president may congratulate him on his courage, his public statements against terror and about the need to help him financially."
Nor did Bush agree to proceed directly to final status talks. The President did, however:
- Pointedly call Abbas "Mr. President" (Israel continues referring to him as "Chairman").
- Demand a halt to Israel’s settlement construction outside the Green Line, particularly around Jerusalem - an obvious reference to Ma’ale Adumim and an implicit endorsement of East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.
- Criticize the separation wall ("The barrier being erected by Israel as a part of its security effort must be a security, rather than political, barrier. And its route should take into account, consistent with security needs, its impact on Palestinians not engaged in terrorist activities.")
- Commit Condoleeza to another Mideast trip, in August.
- Grant the PA $50 million for housing and infrastructure.
Not a bad day’s work. It will certainly give Abbas a boost at home (as Ha’aretz drove home with a photo of two keffiyeh-clad Arabs watching the press conference on a TV in Hebron).
He’ll need one. According to a new report from the U.N.’s International Labor Office, joblessness in the territories grew from 203,000 a year ago to 224,000 at present.
"The mission observed a prevailing feeling that the economic situation of Palestinians must rapidly improve in order for them to continue to support the policy of dialogue and negotiation with Israel", the report says…
The report drew particular attention to the youth unemployment rate of 40 per cent among 15 to 24-year-olds, which is one-and-a-half times the aggregate rate.
One in three young persons aged 15-24 years and over half of those aged 25-29 years are in forced idleness, that is neither studying nor in employment, says the report, adding "idleness among young people faced with military occupation makes a fertile breeding ground for extremism and violence. This situation requires urgent attention in the form of significant assistance in vocational training, business development and employment orientation specifically directed at young women and men".
In 2004, 57 per cent of all wage workers in the occupied territories received monthly wages that failed to lift a family of two adults and four children above the official poverty line. Approximately half of the population, 1.8 million persons, live below the national poverty threshold.
These statistics are a reminder: Abbas may be a darling of the international diplomatic set, but his standing at home is tenuous. The militant movements are waiting in the wings. It’s my sense that he will need to bring about material improvements in the quality of life in the territories, and real steps toward statehood, before his people are willing to lay down their arms for good.
Rami Khouri’s downbeat assessment
Have you read Rami Khouri’s downbeat assessement of the current situation in Palestine? It makes for sobering reading. I don’t think I’m quite that down on the prospects for peace, but Khouri does make a strong case that things are going fr. bad to worse, the ceasefire may be on the verge of collapse, that Hamas awaits eagerly in the wings & might triumph in the not too far term, & that a 3rd Intifada awaits imminently (possibly).
Richard
Tikun Olam: Make the World a Better Place (weblog)