semitism.net

This makes no sense to me whatsoever. Here are IDF sources, in Arutz Sheva, complaining that the militants are getting stronger in Gaza…

Security sources have expressed concern over a significant increase in terrorist attacks against Israeli communities and soldiers inside and outside the Gaza region in recent weeks.

This increase - including rocket fire, mortar shellings, shootings, infiltrations and mines - constitutes a blatant contravention of the ceasefire agreement, IDF sources note. In addition, a senior military officer said yesterday that the Gaza-area terrorist organizations have become impressively organized in their purchase and smuggling of weapons from Egypt and other unnamed sources.

Israel has actually violated the ceasefire by killing several unarmed Palestinians, but that’s not what I’m talking about now. Here’s Mahmoud Abbas quoted in Haaretz:

Whoever violates this general consensus… must be hit by an iron fist… Whoever wants to sabotage (the truce) with rocket fire or shooting must be stopped by us even if that requires using force.

So far so good. Israel has an obvious interest in ending missile attacks, and Abbas seems entirely willing to crack down on renegade militant groups in order to accomplish this. You would think Israel would want to support the PA in this effort. But also in today’s Haaretz, Aluf Ben reports:

Israel has rejected a proposal by the United States to supply the Palestinian police officers in the West Bank with weapons that would assist them in performing their duties.

American officials have told their Israeli interlocutors over the past few days that the Palestinian security forces need weapons to help them maintain order in the territories. In response, the U.S. officials heard a negative reply from Israeli officials: "Let them first take the weapons from the terrorists."

Now, I don’t mean to be negative or anything, but Israel, in fighting these same terrorists, found it necessary to send tanks and helicopters into crowded cities and refugee camps, fire mortars into crowds and bomb buildings, killing and wounding dozens of perfectly innocent people who happened to be nearby - and they’re saying the PA should disarm them without even carrying guns? Sorry, but that’s insane.

I know - the IDF is afraid any arms it gives to the PA will be used against Israel if the situation changes. But how on earth is Abbas supposed to reign in armed militants without using military force? What is he going to do, issue fines for shooting Kassams into Gush Katif?

Israel doesn’t necessarily need to trust Abbas’ good intentions. But recognize, at least, that there is a common interest here: if the PA is going to become the government of a state, it needs to have the power of a state to enforce the law. In Gaza, where well-armed, well-funded militant groups operate according to their own rules and cooperate with the PA only if they choose, this is not going to happen if the PA does not have military force at its disposal.

The real issue, I think, is that Israel does not want to take the first steps on the road to recognizing the PA as a legitimate government of a state-to-be. I fear that Sharon - or, if not Sharon, than many in the military establishment - would like to see Abbas fail, and the militant groups assume power. Israel - with its settlements expanding, the wall underway, and an effective counterinsurgency operation in place in the West Bank - feels it has the upper hand. If it can just delay final status negotiations long enough it can draw its own borders without taking Palestinian concerns into consideration. From this viewpoint, the longer Israel can maintain that it has no partner for peace, the better.

Both sides understand this strategy. It is no coincidence that jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti re-appeared on the scene today, warning that "If the situation remains as it is, it will not bring peace and stability". The implicit warning is of a resurgence of armed violence if a negotiated peace cannot be accomplished.

By the way, Dennis Fox links today to an Infoshop report of a non-violent demonstation against the wall at Bil’in. According to a participant’s account, Israeli intelligence operatives infiltrated the group and started throwing stones at police, in an attempt to provoke a confrontation. If the account is true it would suggest that the military is going to some lengths to subvert the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Rand Corporation has released a report on the necessary conditions for Palestinian statehood. It’s about 450 pages, with tons of maps, tables and statistics. Here’s a snippet from the summary:

Our analysis identified three crosscutting issues that will strongly influence prospects
for the success of a Palestinian state:

• How freely people can move between Israel and an independent Palestinian state,
  which we refer to as "permeability" of borders.
• Whether the state’s territory (apart from the separation of Gaza from the West
  Bank) is contiguous.
• The degree to which security is achieved.

You can be sure I’ll be working my way through the whole report this weekend, and posting a synopsis here when I’m done.

Live web: Israel, Palestine